Is it Possible to Predict Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rates can fluctuate rapidly. With theseremain artificially low, even as inflation rates
unexpected changes, it can be hard to knowincrease.
exactly when to lock in a rate. Could you haveFinally, look at what large, national lenders are
saved money if you waited one more month? Ordoing. Although there is no reason to expect all
did you stall too long and miss a window oflenders to follow along with what these large
opportunity? Wouldn’t it be easier if therelenders do, they often do. The business section of
were a concrete way to predict mortgage rates?your local newspaper will probably tell you
No one can predict mortgage rates precisely, buteverything you need to know about what lenders
if you pay attention to a variety of factors, youare doing across the nations. Depending on where
may begin to notice a trend. Unfortunately, evenyou live and the economic climate, you may see
keeping an eye on the trends in mortgage ratessimilar results within days or weeks. While the
will not tell you exactly when it is the best time tomortgage rates may not be the same, the trend
lock in a rate.will be.
While it may be impossible to guarantee that youWhile following these basic rules will give you an
are locking in the lowest available rate, you canedge over less informed consumers, there are
get a good interest rate by paying attention toother factors that will affect your personal
the market and knowing what to look for.mortgage rate. Lenders look at individual
In the past, it was much simpler to predictborrowers when determining what rate they
mortgage rates. They would typically follow theoffer to a customer. A person seeking a
interest rates of corporate bonds, but lag behindmortgage that has exemplary credit, a hefty
by anywhere from six months to a year. Andamount of money to pay for a down payment
while this would not make it possible to determineand some extra cash to pay on points will have a
the exact mortgage rate, it would provide somelower mortgage rate than someone who has
insight into whether mortgage rates were trendingsome blemishes on their credit, little money for
up or down.their down payment and not enough extra
This method was very effective when a bank ormoney to pay any points.
credit union made a loan and held that loan for theIt is also important to understand the difference
duration of the term. Today, that is not howbetween a fixed rate mortgage and an adjustable
lending works.rate mortgage. Fixed rate mortgages are typically
A mortgage is originated at a local bank, but it ishigher than adjustable rate mortgages. The
then bundled and sold. Because mortgages areadjustable rate mortgage may seem like a better
now considered investment vehicles, it isdeal, but often the adjustable rate mortgage
important that the interest rates be competitiveresets at a higher rate than the fixed rate
enough to attract attention from potentialmortgage.
investors. The mortgages are pooled into anIt is important not to waste too much time
investment group called mortgage backedworrying about mortgage rates. While we all want
securities.to save as much money as possible when buying
These securities have the same type of appeala home, at some point you have to make the
as bonds, and the interest rate is typicallycommitment to invest the money and close on
comparable to that of a ten-year treasury bond.the loan. While it may seem like a mortgage is a
While the interest paid on a mortgage-backedlifetime commitment, in many cases it is possible
security is higher than that of a ten-yearto refinance a mortgage.
Treasury, they will typically follow the path of theIf mortgage rates drop, speak to your lender.
Treasury bond. For example, if interest rates forSome lenders will expect you to go through the
Treasury bonds drop, expect mortgage rates toentire lending process again when refinancing, while
drop as well.others will allow you to refinance without a new
Another consideration for predicting mortgageappraisal, deferring many of the closing costs. If
rates is the current rate of inflation. When inflationyour lender seems unwilling to work with you on
gets higher, mortgage rates go up too. Andthis, shop around. You may find a better deal, or
conversely, low inflation rates usually mean loweryou may find that your current lender is more
interest rates. There are, however, exceptions towilling to work with you in an effort to keep your
this rule. If the federal government is working toloan in house.
stimulate the economy, mortgage rates may